Bitcoin (BTC) is tempting “diamond hands” to sell as analysis warns that institutional buying is essential to protect the BTC price breakout.
Data from onchain analytics firm Glassnode shows that long-term holders (LTHs) have begun reducing their BTC exposure.
Long-term holders up Bitcoin sales through November
BTC price upside has delivered a trip to nearly $100,000, but some old hands are not waiting to take profit.
Glassnode, which tracks the 30-day net position change among LTH entities, now reveals an accelerating selling trend.
LTHs are wallets hodling a given amount of BTC for at least 155 days, and correspond to the less speculative end of the Bitcoin investor spectrum. After accumulating for most of the past six months, LTHs have flipped to net sellers.
On Nov. 20, the LTH net position decrease reached 245,000 BTC compared to 30 days previously. This represents the largest comparative 30-day reduction since April.
Bitcoin LTH net position change. Source: Glassnode
Responding, crypto analyst Miles Deutscher suggested that only largescale buying pressure could meaningfully counter the LTH trend. Top of the list are the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
“ETF flows must remain strong or else long-term holder sell pressure may catch up to the market,” he warned in an X post.
US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors
The ETFs have seen record net inflows over the past month, this week boosting the industry further with the launch of options trading.
Data from UK-based investment firm Farside Investors confirms that Nov. 20 saw net inflows of over $770 million.
An accompanying chart on Deutscher’s post nonetheless flagged even these accentuated inflows struggling to counter LTH activity.
Bitcoin LTH vs. ETF net position change. Source: Miles Deutscher/X
Bitcoiners sit on “significant” unrealized profits
Continuing, Glassnode acknowledged that Bitcoin hodlers of all kinds are now firmly in the black, with supply dynamics apt to change as a result.
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“As the profitability of market investors increases, the elevated potential for new sell-side pressure comes into play,” it wrote in the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week Onchain,” released on Nov. 20.
Researchers highlighted the market value to realized value (MVRV) metric, which measures almost as much as at Bitcoin’s old $73,800 peak in March.
“Bitcoin's price has recently broken above the +1σ band, located at $89.5k,” they commented on deviations in realized price.
“This signals that investors are now holding statistically significant unrealized profits, and suggests an increased likelihood of profit-taking activities.”
Bitcoin MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands (screenshot). Source: Glassnode
Glassnode added that crypto bull markets often see long phases of “overheated” metrics.
“Nevertheless, the market has historically remained in this overheated state for extended periods of time, especially when supported by sufficiently large capital inflows to absorb sell-side pressure,” it concluded.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.