Bitcoin developer Jimmy Song has said none of the most common predictions for SegWit2x will in fact come true.
In an analysis Tuesday, Song said that the result of the upcoming Bitcoin hard fork will be more nuanced and that straight cancellation 2x or full surrender by Bitcoin Core were “highly unlikely.”
“Big caveat is that I don’t expect any of these scenarios to come to pass,” he said introducing the current and future landscape.
Warnings surrounding Bitcoin following Nov. 16’s hard fork have tended to center on an all-or-nothing scenario, where the industry selects either the 2x chain or shuns it within a short space of time.
Song says the reality will be more complex, revolving around miner profitability over the next six months.
SegWit2x futures prices, currently around $1,200, are not sufficiently reliable.
“A static, first-order estimation of the current situation suggests that the current futures market price and current mining split is not stable economically,” he explains. “The people on different sides of the debate essentially stand on different sides of what will correct.”
Song added he would produce technical details of the more likely situations in due course.
Cryptocurrency businesses have broadly divested themselves of pressure regarding the hard fork, opting for a wait-and-see attitude with more or less interaction with the new chain.
Bitcoin.org co-founder Cobra meanwhile has appealed to the community to forge a further hard fork which will become the new Bitcoin.