Bitcoin could be heading to a correction below $54,000 after the global crypto market capitalization fell below a key psychological level.
The global crypto market capitalization fell below the $2 trillion mark after decreasing 3.46% in the 24 hours leading up to 10:00 am UTC on Sept. 4, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Total crypto market cap, 1-month chart. Source: CoinMarketCap
Combined with the growing sell-off in traditional markets, this resulted in Bitcoin (BTC) falling below the $60,000 psychological mark.
For a potential reversal, the Bitcoin price first needs a correction to $54,000, according to Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro. He told Cointelegraph:
“Bitcoin fell to $55.5K at the peak of the decline before stabilizing at $56.4K. Current levels acted as support during the May and July declines, but the trend of lower local lows sets up a reversal at $54K at the earliest.”
BTC/USD, 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph
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Bitcoin could bottom below $50,000 on US interest rate cut — Bitfinex
September could bring a long-awaited interest rate cut in the US, the world’s largest economy, which is a positive signal for risk assets like Bitcoin.
However, Bitcoin’s bull run could precede a correction below $50,000 following the interest rate cut, according to Bitfinex analysts.
The analysts told Cointelegraph:
“If we were to speculate, we would caution to expect a 15–20% decline when rates are cut this month, with a bottom of $40,000 to $50,000 for BTC. This is not an arbitrary number but based on the fact that the cycle peak in terms of percentage return reduces by around 60–70% each cycle, and the average bull market correction has reduced as well.”
However, the analysts stated that Bitcoin could escape this significant correction if macroeconomic conditions further improve.
Investors are increasingly expecting an interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve at its upcoming meeting on Sept. 18.
Odds of an interest rate cut. Source: CME FedWatch
According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a 25 basis-point rate cut currently stand at 59%, while the odds of a 50 basis-point rate cut are at 41%.
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Bitcoin ETFs record five consecutive days of negative outflows, signaling more volatility for September
September has historically been a month of downside volatility, with average Bitcoin returns at -4.69%, making it the most bearish month based on average returns, according to CoinGlass data.
Bitcoin monthly returns percentage. Source: CoinGlass
However, the slump in inflows to US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also adds downward pressure on the world’s first cryptocurrency.
The US ETFs saw five consecutive days of cumulative net outflows, recording over $287 million worth of outflows on Sept. 3, according to Farside Investors data.
Bitcoin ETF flows (USD, million). Source: Farside Investors
ETFs could bolster the Bitcoin price to new all-time highs once inflows turn positive. Spot ETFs accounted for about 75% of new investment in Bitcoin by Feb. 15 as it surpassed the $50,000 mark.
Why America Should Buy Bitcoin | RFK Jr. Interview. Source: YouTube