Bitcoin’s (BTC) price consolidation is signaling a major move ahead, though it could go in either direction, according to a crypto trader.
Two speculative events may tip the scales either way. One is likely further rate cuts by the United States Federal Reserve, and the other is the possibility of the US government selling more seized Silk Road Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin is getting very compressed again after trading at this same price level for the past couple of days,” pseudonymous crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades stated in an Oct. 9 X post amid Bitcoin’s price hovering around the $62,000 price level.
Bitcoin is trading at $61,920, down 0.38% over the past 24 hours. Source: TradingView
“Large” move anticipated for Bitcoin either way
Daan Crypto Trades opined that Bitcoin’s “next move likely going to be a large one.”
He suggested that the direction remains uncertain and could swing either way.
“Your best bet is to wait for confirmation in times like these,” he added, suggesting that traders hold off from accumulating or selling their Bitcoin until the price chart gives stronger signals on its next direction.
Meanwhile, market participants anticipate that the US Federal Reserve may continue cutting interest rates following its 50-basis-point cut on Sept. 18, a move widely anticipated by investors and analysts.
Further rate cuts are widely seen as bullish for crypto assets as safer investments like term deposits become less appealing to investors.
HSBC is anticipating a 25-basis-point cut in November and another 25 bps in December, January, March, May and June for six consecutive 25-bps rate cuts, according to the ForexLive report.
While market commentators see the Fed’s rate cuts as bullish for riskier assets like crypto, they have also expressed concerns about the potential impact on those holding US dollars.
“The Fed has begun cutting rates. What does that mean? Financial authorities have decided who is paying for their mistakes: those holding US dollars,” Strike CEO Jack Mallers opined in an Oct. 2 X post.
Additionally, Marketwise founder Porter Stansberry warned:
“Most Americans don’t understand what’s happening: they’ve never seen Fed rate cuts lead to HIGHER inflation & interest rates. And they are about to get wiped out.”
US government selling seized Silk Road BTC
There are also concerns that the US government may sell a large amount of seized Bitcoin from Silk Road following a recent court decision not to hear a request for claiming ownership by a private entity over the Bitcoin.
Related: Last week’s Bitcoin dip a ‘healthy realignment,’ lower risk of crash: Bitfinex
On Oct. 8, the US Supreme Court declined to take on a case concerning the ownership of 69,370 BTC — worth $4.38 billion — that the US government seized from the dark web marketplace Silk Road.
Battle Born Investments submitted the review request, asserting that it had acquired rights to the seized Bitcoin through a bankruptcy estate.
Bitget’s chief analyst, Ryan Lee, believes the large sale will have short-term and long-term effects on Bitcoin’s price. In the short term, Lee expects “increased market volatility,” typically seen during large Bitcoin sales or unlocks.
“Market sentiment may take a hit due to the sudden increase in supply, leading to a wave of selling and a temporary drop in Bitcoin’s price,” Lee explained.
Lee also believes that the influx of sold Bitcoin may exert “downward pressure” on prices, particularly if sold on the open market.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.