Bitcoin (BTC) could see fresh upside volatility as BTC price strength revisits key levels, a classic metric suggests.
In an X (formerly Twitter) post on Sep. 18, John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, said that Bitcoin was positioned for a breakout decision.
Bitcoin Bollinger Bands eye start of “walk up”
After hitting new September highs the day prior, Bitcoin has been challenging resistance levels out of reach since mid-August, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
For Bollinger, the signs from the largest cryptocurrency are encouraging. Bollinger Bands uses standard deviation around a simple moving average to determine both likely price ranges and volatility.
Currently, BTC/USD is putting in daily candles that touch the upper band. When this happens, it can signal an imminent reversal back to the center band or, conversely, an inbound fit of upside volatility.
Narrow Bollinger Bands seen on Bitcoin recently lend weight to hopes that the latter scenario will now play out.
“And there is the first tag of the upper Bollinger Band after a new set of controlling bars was established at the lower band,” Bollinger commented alongside a chart.
“The question is now can we do a walk up the upper band? Too early to answer.”
Cointelegraph reported on the narrowing of the bands in July — an event that ultimately preceded a return to lower levels.
BTC price reset “quite reasonable”
Bollinger characterizes the current mood among seasoned Bitcoin traders and analysts on short timeframes.
Related: FOMC versus BTC price ‘local bottom’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Despite the strength seen this week, caution abounds as various trendlines previously acting as support remain above the spot price.
Discussing the situation, on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators told X subscribers to question bulls’ momentum.
“We have heavy technical resistance overhead at the Key Moving Averages and support at the LL,” part of the commentary stated.
“It’s quite possible that we round trip the range, and with any luck, we will see legit tests of the R/S levels that will give us some clarity on where BTC goes from here before the end of the week.”
Material Indicators referenced the upcoming United States Federal Reserve decision on interest rates, which could produce snap volatility and untrustworthy short-term trading signals.
UPDATE 2: As noted earlier, it appears #BTC bulls are gaining some momentum, but things are not always as they seem. Let me explain...
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) September 18, 2023
Sometime after last nights candle close/open we've seen a new Trend Precognition ⬆️signal develop on the Daily chart and NOW we have a new… pic.twitter.com/V0UI7JznKf
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