The Bitcoin price action is currently following a pattern seen in previous bull runs, suggesting that its 9-month cycle may not be over yet. According to a crypto analyst, historical data from past Bitcoin cycles shows precisely where the market is in the current bull run. These past trends reveal that the market may be caught in a bear trap.
What Bitcoin Past Cycles Say About The Market’s Current Position
Crypto analyst Cyclop on X (formerly Twitter) shared historical data of past Bitcoin bull run cycles to determine the exact position of the current market. The analyst revealed that during the bull rally in 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin experienced a recurring nine-month bull market, with a bear trap phase occurring around month 5 or 6.
A bear trap is a temporary price decline that misleads traders and investors into believing that the bull market is over, triggering a massive sell-off and spreading fear. Unlike the normal bear market, which involves prolonged periods of decline and volatility, a bear trap swiftly recovers and continues on its former bullish momentum.
According to the Cyclops chart, the Bitcoin market has likely entered its bear trap phase, aligning with patterns from previous bull run cycles. In 2011, Bitcoin saw a nine-month bull run, with a bear trap occurring in the sixth month. The only exception to this six-month trend was in 2013 when the bear trap emerged in the fifth month instead.
If Bitcoin’s market were to follow this historical data, as the analyst suggests, then it would mean that the cryptocurrency has possibly entered the 6-month bear trap. This trend is typically followed by stages of renewed optimism, Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO), and Euphoria at the peak before the next market correction.
Currently, the Bitcoin price has declined significantly below the $100,000 threshold and is now trading at $95,767. Based on CoinMarketCap’s reports, the pioneer cryptocurrency declined by over 11% in the past month and has failed to recover enough gains to push it back to previous highs. Factors like US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, ongoing market volatility and changes in sentiment have had a severe impact on the Bitcoin market and broader cryptocurrencies.
Crypto Community Reacts With Mixed Views
While Cyclop believes that the current market has possibly entered a bear trap, crypto community members argue that it is still in a bull run. One member, B. Rich disclosed that rather than a bear trap, the market was likely experiencing a shakeout.
He predicts that the bear trap would come into play when the Bitcoin price hits or pulls back around the $200,000 level due to various psychological reasons. He also believes that a long-term super cycle may be in the bookssuper cycle may be in the books for BTC, with current bearish sentiment quickly transforming into FOMO.