Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), is beginning to receive a fair bit of positive mindshare with the recent outrage against Solana (SOL) following its LIBRA memecoin incident lining up with a downturn in activity on the Solana network.
With sentiment turning in favor of the largest altcoin, one analyst believes that ETH might rally over the next few weeks until the end of March.
Ethereum turns bullish in the “2nd half of Q1” since 2020
While most analysts were cautious about pulling any bullish punches amid the current ETH price drawdowns, Honey, a full-time crypto trader, believed that historical data supports a rally in the second half of Q1.
According to the swing trader, Ether has exhibited a market pump during the latter half of Q1 since 2020. This is irrespective of whether it is a bull or bear market, as the trader highlighted that ETH also pumped 50% during the 2022 bear market.
Ethereum performance in 2nd half of Q1 since 2020. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Data shows that Ethereum has experienced an average of 40% returns during the final six weeks of Q1, with its bullish outcome progressively decreasing due to the rate of diminishing returns. Thus, considering Ether exhibits a 20% to 22% rise over the next six weeks, the potential price target remains around $3,500.
However, Honey also acknowledged the fact that market dynamics are drastically different in 2025, with the number of altcoins being much higher than in its previous cycle. The trader said:
“If we don't pump by the end of Q1, my thesis is invalid and we shall see what happens but until then, I remain optimistic.”
Similarly, Rektproof, a crypto trader, said that an ETH long position’s “opportunity cost” looks highly lucrative. The trader compared the altcoin with Bitcoin and gold, assets that have trended higher after a lower range break following an accumulation period.
ETH vs BTC vs GOLD analysis. Source: X.com
The data suggests that Ethereum is lagging in terms of performance this cycle, and any significant bullish reversal would see the crypto asset follow in the paths of its counterpart to hit a new all-time high above $6,000.
Related: Is Ethereum bottoming out at last? Analysts weigh in
Can Ether avoid its August 2024 sell-off
Ethereum faces another obstacle to break out of its current price rut. As illustrated below, the altcoin’s current market structure mirrors its drawdown period from Q2-Q3 2024.
The altcoin has repeated the exact same trend, with prices forming lower highs below its descending resistance and then facing a sharp correction below its multimonth resistance range at $2,800-$2,850.
Ethereum 1-day chart analysis. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Similar to August 2024, the price is currently consolidating below $2,800. For Ether to avoid another three months of sideways price action under the resistance range, the altcoin must establish a daily close above $2,800-$2,850.
Otherwise, the above bullish expectation will be invalidated, and prices may re-test their recent range lows under $2,300.
Related: Traders eye SOL/ETH reversal amid memecoin fallout
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.