Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $95,000 level after briefly testing below $91,000 on Nov. 26. The two-day, 5% rally marked a decoupling from traditional markets, particularly United States government bonds. This shift contrasts with the previous week when Bitcoin’s price closely tracked the US 2 Year Treasury note yields.
US 2 Year Treasury price vs. Bitcoin/USD. Source: TradingView/Cointelegraph
If investors are moving away from Bitcoin’s “risk-on” perception due to its hard monetary policy and censorship-resistant features, the likelihood of reaching $100,000 before year-end increases. Given that some of the world’s largest economies are facing growth challenges, it’s likely that investors will seek refuge in scarce assets, supporting Bitcoin’s performance.
On Nov. 28, the 10-year yield on French government debt, the second-largest economy in the eurozone, rose to 3%, matching Greece’s debt yields. Such data, according to CNBC, “shows the extent of concerns over political turmoil in France as the government struggles to get support for its 2025 budget that aims to cut spending.”
France’s budget deficit is projected to reach 6.1% in 2024, more than double the eurozone’s proposed limit of 3%.
Russia, another global economic powerhouse, saw its domestic currency, the ruble, drop to its lowest level since March 2022, prompting intervention from the central bank. President Vladimir Putin quickly dismissed concerns despite inflation soaring to 8.5% in October, as reported by CNBC. The central bank has raised interest rates to 21% but has yet to curb persistent price increases.
Bitcoin ETF inflows and miner accumulation boost bullish outlook
Inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also helped improve investor sentiment, reversing a two-day negative streak on Nov. 27.
The $103 million of net inflow was primarily directed into Fidelity’s FBTC and Bitwise’s BITB, while BlackRock’s leading IBIT fund remained flat. This marked a significant turnaround from the previous $548 million in outflows on Nov. 25 and Nov. 26.
Bitcoin miners’ 7-day average net flows, BTC. Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin miners’ flows ended a 10-day stretch of average outflows, according to Glassnode data, with increasing deposits on miner-controlled addresses. While this is an estimate, lacking official confirmation, it has nonetheless contributed to a more bullish market sentiment.
Typically, miners’ accumulation signals confidence in the ongoing bull market, while profit-taking often generates unwarranted fear, uncertainty and doubt, also known as FUD. To provide context, the 30-day average miners’ revenue stands at 476 BTC, suggesting that at least 30% in outflows should be expected to cover expenses.
Related: Bitcoin halving birthday: 12 years of limited supply and milestones
A report from Bernstein Research estimated that MicroStrategy will control 4% of the total Bitcoin supply by the end of 2033, addressing concerns about the company’s large premium relative to its BTC holdings. The firm currently holds a record 331,200 BTC in its treasury and plans to continue its strategy, including issuing debt and stock.
Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 also depends on how the US economy and the dollar respond to current macroeconomic conditions. However, onchain data and institutional interest remain robust, indicating strong bullish momentum that could propel BTC toward new highs.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.