Bitcoin (BTC) price has rebounded by over 22% from its Aug. 5 low of around $49,557, and analysts believe that onchain and technical indicators point to the recovery continuing.
Bitcoin supply on exchanges plunges
Bitcoin’s potential rally over the next few weeks is evidenced by onchain data tracking BTC supply on exchanges (the blue wave in the chart below).
As of Aug. 23, centralized crypto exchanges held about 2.68 million BTC, an 11% drop from $3.011 million BTC on Jan. 1. This is occurring alongside a 43% year-to-date rise in Bitcoin’s value.
Bitcoin reserve on exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
A depleting supply on exchanges hints at traders’ preference for holding BTC tokens over selling them for other assets or fiat. So, if demand doesn’t diminish, Bitcoin’s potential to continue its 2024 bull run increases.
Perhaps continued demand for BTC will come from institutional investors as they pour capital into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to data from Farside Investors, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded positive flows in nine out of the last 13 trading days, suggesting continued institutional interest in these investment products.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows table. Source: Farside Investors
However, onchain data tracker CryptoQuant reported decreasing inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, saying that they are just a fraction of their March tally, with last week’s daily average coming in at 1,300 BTC.
CryptoQuant analysts noted that Bitcoin needed strong institutional demand through the spot Bitcoin ETFs to hit new all-time highs.
“A recovery in spot ETF purchases is essential to drive overall Bitcoin demand upward, potentially leading to a corresponding price rally.”
Bitcoin whales are accumulating
Strong demand for Bitcoin persists among its large addresses, according to data tracked by Santiment.
Notably, Bitcoin whale addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have accumulated approximately 94,700 more coins over the last six weeks.
“As price uncertainty has shaken many traders out of crypto, key stakeholders [Bitcoin whales] are loading up.”
Total BTC held by 100-1K wallets. Source: Santiment
That coincides with a 13% rally in Bitcoin’s market valuation since the July 5 low of $53,550, suggesting that whales accumulated the token on the dips. Simply put, Bitcoin’s large holders believe its value could rise further over the next month.
Related: Bitcoin open interest jumps $1.3B following Fed's 'dovish' minutes
Bitcoin price breaks out of a pennant
Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating inside what appears to be a bull pennant after bottoming out at $49,557 on Aug. 5.
A bull pennant is a bullish continuation pattern that appears when an asset consolidates in a triangle-like price range following a strong move higher. It typically ends up breaking out of the range to the upside, eyeing a profit target at a length equal to the triangle’s width.
It appears Bitcoin price is eyeing a similar breakout scenario over the next few weeks. It is now trading above around the pennant’s upper trendline near $60,300. If bulls hold above the said resistance level, its upward breakout target would be around $68,000, up 12.4% from current price levels.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin’s rise above $61,800 on Aug. 22 saw the price flip the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $59,446 back into support. This has added to the robust support Bitcoin enjoys on the downside, as evidenced by data from IntoTheBlock.
Its in/out of the money around price (IOMAP) model shows that the 200-day EMA lies within the $58,653 to $60,465 price range, where approximately 919,470 BTC were previously bought by about 1.77 million addresses.
Bitcoin IOMAP chart. Source: IntoTheBlock
Increased buying from this demand zone could potentially move Bitcoin’s price higher over the next few weeks, supporting the positive outlook for BTC.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.